People,Pipelines, and Probabilities: Clarifying Significance and Uncertainty in Environmental Impact Assessments

Determinations of significance play a pivotal role in environmental impact assessments because they point decision makers to the predicted effects of an action most deserving of attention and further study. Impact predictions are always subject to uncertainty because they rely on estimates of future consequences. Yet uncertainty is often neglected or treated in a perfunctory manner as part of the characterization, evaluation, and communication of anticipated consequences and their significance. Proposals to construct fossil fuel pipelines in North America provide a highly visible example; casual treatment of how uncertainty affects significance determinations has resulted in poorly informed stakeholders, frustrated industry proponents, and inconsistent choices on the part of public decision makers. Using environmental assessments for recent pipeline proposals as examples, we highlight five ways in which uncertainty is often neglected when determining impact significance and suggest that a mix of known methods, new guidelines, and appropriate oversight could greatly improve current practices.     

重大突发公共卫生事件中的中小企业多维度社会责任问题探索

企业承担必要的社会责任是企业自身伦理道德的内在要求。肺炎疫情这一重大突发公共卫生事件给中国及世界经济造成了极大的冲击和影响，这就更需要中小企业在这个特殊时期肩负起更大的社会责任。梳理了企业社会责任的相关文献，并从社会、员工、消费者、供应商等维度研究了中小企业在重大突发公共卫生事件时期应当承担的社会责任。     

Delaying factors for maternal health service utilization in eastern Ethiopia: A qualitative exploratory study

BackgroundIn Ethiopia, maternal health service utilization is still unacceptably low. The societal and cultural factors that constrain women from attending these services have not yet been sufficiently explored. Using qualitative methods, we aimed to explore the factors that delay maternal health service utilization in eastern Ethiopia.MethodA total of 13 audio-recorded focus group discussions were conducted comprising 88 participants. We conducted separate group discussions with reproductive aged women, mothers-in-law, traditional birth attendants, husbands, and Health Extension Workers to capture their knowledge, practices, feelings, thoughts and attitudes towards maternal health service utilization. The recorded sessions were transcribed into the local language and then translated into English for analysis.ResultThe study identified a number of factors that may delay maternal health service utilization. Factors were grouped using the Three Delays model as a framework. Low level of awareness regarding need, poor involvement of husband, perceived absence of health problems, social power, community misperceptions and cultural restrictions, negative attitudes towards male midwives, acceptance of traditional birth attendants and poor social networking were Delay One factors. Lack of physical accessibility and high transportation costs were categorised as Delay Two factors for skilled birth care attendance. Perceived or experienced poor quality of care were categorised as Delay Three factors for both skilled birth and postnatal care utilization.ConclusionDespite the ongoing government measures to improve maternal health service utilization in Ethiopia, numerous factors continue to contribute to delays in service use, which in turn contribute to high maternal mortality.     

A Discourse on the Incorporation of Organizational Factors into Probabilistic Risk Assessment: Key Questions and Categorical Review

This article presents a discourse on the incorporation of organizational factors into probabilistic risk assessment (PRA)/probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), a topic of debate since the 1980s that has spurred discussions among industry, regulatory agencies, and the research community. The main contributions of this article include (1) identifying the four key open questions associated with this topic; (2) framing ongoing debates by considering differing perspectives around each question; (3) offering a categorical review of existing studies on this topic to justify the selection of each question and to analyze the challenges related to each perspective; and (4) highlighting the directions of research required to reach a final resolution for each question. The four key questions are: (I) How significant is the contribution of organizational factors to accidents and incidents? (II) How critical, with respect to improving risk assessment, is the explicit incorporation of organizational factors into PRA? (III) What theoretical bases are needed for explicit incorporation of organizational factors into PRA? (IV) What methodological bases are needed for the explicit incorporation of organizational factors into PRA? Questions I and II mainly analyze PRA literature from the nuclear domain. For Questions III and IV, a broader review and categorization is conducted of those existing cross-disciplinary studies that have evaluated the effects of organizational factors on safety (not solely PRA-based) to shed more light on future research needs.     

Probabilistic Analysis of Dam Accidents Worldwide: Risk Assessment for Dams of Different Purposes in OECD and Non-OECD Countries with Focus on Time Trend Analysis

This study presents probabilistic analysis of dam accidents worldwide in the period 1911–2016. The accidents are classified by the dam purpose and by the country cluster, where they occurred, distinguishing between the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and nonmember countries (non-OECD without China). A Bayesian hierarchical approach is used to model distributions of frequency and severity for accidents. This approach treats accident data as a multilevel system with subsets sharing specific characteristics. To model accident probabilities for a particular dam characteristic, this approach samples data from the entire data set, borrowing the strength across data set and enabling to model distributions even for subsets with scarce data. The modelled frequencies and severities are combined in frequency-consequence curves, showing that accidents for all dam purposes are more frequent in non-OECD (without China) and their maximum consequences are larger than in OECD countries. Multipurpose dams also have higher frequencies and maximum consequences than single-purpose dams. In addition, the developed methodology explicitly models time dependence to identify trends in accident frequencies over the analyzed period. Downward trends are found for almost all dam purposes confirming that technological development and implementation of safety measures are likely to have a positive impact on dam safety. The results of the analysis provide insights for dam risk management and decision-making processes by identifying key risk factors related to country groups and dam purposes as well as changes over time.     

增进学生身心健康是我国学校体育发展的根本和方向——学习贯彻习近平总书记在全国教育大会上的重要讲话精神

2018年9月10日，习近平总书记在全国教育大会上强调：“要树立健康第一的教育理念，开齐开足体育课，帮助学生在体育锻炼中享受乐趣、增强体质、健全人格、锤炼意志。”这为我国未来学校体育的发展指明了方向。学校体育要认真贯彻落实习近平总书记的重要讲话精神，把增进学生的身心健康作为学校体育工作的出发点和落脚点，切实提高学生的身心健康水平，促进学生全面发展。本文首先阐述了习近平总书记重要讲话精神的核心要义，以及所体现的以人为本的思想、高度重视把学生的健康放在首位、非常关注学生的身心协调发展等。其次，就如何落实习近平总书记的重要讲话精神提出了建设性意见：必须开齐开足体育课，保证校内外锻炼时间；提高体育课和课外体育活动的教育教学质量，加强学生的运动效果；“五育”并重，将学校体育纳入学校教育质量评价的重要组成部分；体育教师应树立强烈的社会责任感和使命感等措施和建议。     

Welfare service privatization and opinions about service quality: The role of political ideology among local politicians and the public

In this article, we join the discussion about the potential consequences of welfare service privatization by examining the relationship between the privatization of welfare service delivery and public opinion about service quality in Sweden. Due to the politically polarized debate about welfare service privatization in Sweden, we also examine the extent to which individualsapos; ideological orientations influence this relationship in both local politicians and ordinary citizens. For local politicians, the results show that a higher municipal degree of privatization is generally associated with slightly lower levels of satisfaction overall with welfare services, although no such relationship exists for the public. Most importantly, however, the results indicate that political ideology constitutes an important moderator in the relationship between privatization and opinions about service quality. Local politicians and, to some extent, ordinary citizens who place themselves to the left on the ideological left–right scale tend to be less satisfied with services as the municipal degree of welfare service privatization increases. For local politicians who position themselves far to the right on the scale, the relationship between welfare service privatization and satisfaction is positive. These findings suggest that there is no clear-cut relationship between privatization and individualsapos; opinions about services; rather, this relationship depends on the ideological predispositions of local politicians and ordinary citizens.     

Afghan families and health professionals’ access to health information during and after pregnancy

BackgroundHaving a baby in a new country can be challenging, especially if unable to communicate in a preferred language. The aim of this paper is to explore the provision of health information for Afghan women and men during pregnancy, childbirth and the first year after birth in Melbourne, Australia.MethodsCommunity engagement underpinned the study design. Qualitative study with bicultural researchers conducting semi-structured interviews. Interviews and focus groups were also conducted with health professionals.ResultsSixteen Afghan women and 14 Afghan men with a baby aged 4–12 months participated. Thirty four health professionals also participated. Verbal information provided by a health professional with an interpreter was the most common way in which information was exchanged, and was generally viewed favourably by Afghan women and men. Families had limited access to an interpreter during labour and some families reported difficulty accessing an interpreter fluent in their dialect. Availability of translated information was inconsistent and health professionals occasionally used pictures to support explanations. Women and men were unsure of the role of health professionals in providing information about issues other than pregnancy and infant wellbeing.ConclusionBoth individual and health system issues hinder and enable the availability and use of information. Consistent, understandable and ‘actionable’ information is required to meet the needs of diverse families. Health professionals need to be supported with adequate alternatives to written information and access to appropriate interpreters. Inconsistent provision of information is likely to contribute to low health literacy and poor maternal and child health outcomes.     

The healthy immigrant (migrant) effect: In search of a better native-born comparison group

This paper evaluates whether immigrants’ initial health advantage over their U.S.-born counterparts results primarily from characteristics correlated with their birth countries (e.g., immigrant culture) or from selective migration (e.g., unobserved characteristics such as motivation and ambition) by comparing recent immigrants’ health to that of recent U.S.-born interstate migrants (“U.S.-born movers”). Using data from the 1999–2013 waves of the March Current Population Survey, I find that, relative to U.S.-born adults (collectively), recent immigrants have a 6.1 percentage point lower probability of reporting their health as fair or poor. Changing the reference group to U.S.-born movers, however, reduces the recent immigrant health advantage by 28%. Similar reductions in the immigrant health advantage occurs in models estimated separately by either race/ethnicity or education level. Models that examine health differences between recent immigrants and U.S.-born movers who both moved for a new job—a primary motivation behind moving for both immigrants and the U.S.-born—show that such immigrants have only a 1.9 percentage point lower probability of reporting their health as fair or poor. Together, the findings suggest that changing the reference group from U.S.-born adults collectively to U.S.-born movers reduces the identified immigrant health advantage, indicating that selective migration plays a significant role in explaining the initial health advantage of immigrants in the United States.     

面向服务创新的高校图书馆业务流程重组--以华中师范大学图书馆为例

本文论述新形势下高校图书馆服务创新的主要内容，包括服务的广度和深度、形式和手段、泛在服务和个性化服务，接着分析服务创新所需要的组织架构、人力物力支持、业务流程规范和技术手段跟进等，然后提出业务流程重组的原则和内容，最后以华中师范大学图书馆业务规程作为案例，论述高校图书馆业务流程重组实施过程和效果。